Introductory Probability and Statistics

Winter 2021 Lecture A (Swanson)

**Course:** Math 11 (Course Catalog)

**Title:** Calculus-Based Introductory Probability and Statistics

**Credit Hours:** 5

**Prerequisite:** AP Calculus BC score of 3, 4, or 5, or Math 10B or Math 20B.

**Catalog Description:** Events and probabilities, conditional probability, Bayesâ€™ formula. Discrete and continuous random variables: mean, variance; binomial, Poisson distributions, normal, uniform, exponential distributions, central limit theorem. Sample statistics, confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, regression. Applications. Introduction to software for probabilistic and statistical analysis. Emphasis on connections between probability and statistics, numerical results of real data, and techniques of data analysis.

**Course Content:** Probability theory is the mathematical study of randomness. Statistics is the science of obtaining information from data. Because data are frequently modeled as arising from a random process, probability is central to the mathematical theory of statistics. This course will provide an introduction to both probability and statistics, focusing on applications. We will cover most of chapters 1-23 of the textbook. Because Math 11 students have seen calculus, we will also discuss some material on continuous probability that is not in the textbook. The calendar lists what topics will be covered each day.

**Time Commitment:** Math 11 is a lot of work. You have weekly labs, weekly homework, three exams, a demanding pace which begins the very first week, and lots of reading. **Math 11 is a 5-unit course**. You should expect to spend a total of **15 hours per week** on the course, or three hours per week more than you would spend on a standard 4-unit course. It is not suitable to add the course after the first two days of the quarter. You have been warned.

**Textbook:** The required textbook is *Stats: Data and Models* by De Veaux, Velleman, and Bock. You must have the 5th edition of the textbook and it must include an access code for MyLab Statistics. You can either (1) purchase the textbook from the UCSD Bookstore, which comes bundled with a MyLab Statistics access code (the most expensive option) or (2) purchase electronic access for one quarter only from the MyLab Statistics website. When you first log in to MyLab Statistics through the MyLab and Mastering tab on Canvas, you will be prompted to enter an access code or purchase electronic access. If you choose option (2), you will have access to the textbook until the end of the quarter, but not after. The international edition of the textbook has different numbers in a few of the problems and is not suitable for this course.

We will also read a handout on "Continuous Random Variables" that is posted to the Canvas "Files" tab.

**Course Readings:** Reading the sections in the textbook that correspond to what we are discussing in class is a very important part of learning the subject. Lecture time is very limited and not every subject can be fully covered in the time allotted for lecture. Consequently, it is in your own interests to read the related chapters in the textbook. See the calendar for specifics.

**Lectures:** Lectures will be pre-recorded and will be released on Canvas on the Media Gallery tab according to the calendar. They will also be available on a Google Drive link available on Canvas.

**Lecture Notes:** Lecture notes will be posted on a Google Drive link available on Canvas.

**Homework:** Homework is a very important part of the course and in order to fully master the topics it is essential that you work carefully on every assignment and try your best to complete every problem. Our homework will be online using MyLab Statistics and accessed through the MyLab and Mastering tab on Canvas.

- You can get help with specific homework questions in discussion sections, in TA office hours, and in instructor office hours. You can get help on general course concepts on the Discussions tab on Canvas.
- The Math 11 Academic Integrity Policy is detailed and more restrictive than you are probably used to. Read that page carefully and understand what is expected of you!

**Late Homework:** Homework assignments in MyLab Statistics will be accepted up to one hour late for a 2-point penalty. However, homework assignments completed more than one hour after the deadline will not be accepted. Other accommodations will be made only under extraordinary circumstances. Please understand that accepting late work in less extreme cases is unfair to other students. On Homework 1, the lateness penalty will be only 1 point, and we may make further accommodations in cases of enrollment or technical issues. However, these accommodations will not extend beyond Homework 1.

**Computer Lab Assignments:** In addition to the weekly homework assignments, there will be eight computer lab assignments due on Fridays. These assignments must be submitted by 11:00 PM Pacific Time on the due date. You will submit your assignments online using Canvas.

Math 11 Computer Lab Assignments Webpage: http://www.math.ucsd.edu/~math11/W21.html

**Late Computer Lab Assignments:** Computer lab assignments will be accepted up to one hour late for a 3-point penalty (to allow for computer glitches at the time of the deadline), but labs completed more than one hour after the deadline will not be accepted.Other accommodations will be made only under extraordinary circumstances. Please understand that accepting late work in less extreme cases is unfair to other students. On Lab 1, the lateness penalty will be only 1 point, and we may make further accommodations in cases of enrollment or technical issues. However, these accommodations will not extend beyond Lab 1.

**Exams:** There will be two midterm exams and a final exam. Check the home page for dates and times of the exams. They will be held remotely on Gradescope. If you have a compelling reason to take exam(s) at alternate times, such as time zone incompatibilities, you must request accommodations from your instructor at least 1 week in advance.

On exams, you are allowed to use Minitab, your textbook, any calculator (including an online calculator such as Wolfram Alpha), any class notes that you have made, your homework solutions, and all course materials that are available in Canvas. You are not, however, permitted to communicate with other people while taking the exam, or to look for solutions to exam questions on the internet.

Gradescope records the time of your last submission. If you submit late work after the scheduled end of an exam, you will lose 5% credit for every 1 minute it is late. You will be given opportunities to practice using the exam interface before the first exam. You are responsible for ensuring your setup is reliable and efficient, or, if this is not possible, you must discuss your situation with your instructor in advance. Exceptions to this late work policy will only be made for clear emergencies, in which case you must contact your instructor as soon as possible. To provide a buffer, your final exam score may take the place of your lower midterm score if it will help your final grade.

**Make-up Exams:** Make-up midterm exams will not be given. If you miss a midterm exam because of extraordinary circumstances, such as a serious illness or family emergency, then you may substitute your final exam score for the missed exam. In such cases, you must notify the instructor as soon as possible.

**Grading:** There are two methods to determine your course grade:

**Method 1:**15% Homework, 25% Labs, 15% Midterm 1, 15% Midterm 2, 30% Final Exam**Method 2:**15% Homework, 25% Labs, 15% Best Midterm Exam, 45% Final Exam

The course will be curved. The target mean will be 2.95 +/- 0.15. This is slightly above the historical median GPA for Math 11 of 2.9, in consideration of continued disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The target grade distribution will be

I typically use difficult exams and relatively heavy curves to assign fair grades. This is unusual in UCSD's math department, but I firmly believe it is in students' best interest. Focus on putting your best effort into the course and have faith that grades will work themselves out.

To estimate your current grade during the course, you may do the following. I will post summary statistics after each exam on the Canvas Discussions tab. Use these statistics to estimate your percentile rank on each exam so far and compare the result with the rough grade distribution guidelines above. For example, if you find your average exam score is in the top 40% of students, your exam grades likely put you in the B/B+ range. Median homework and lab scores are typically high, and for most of the class they do not greatly change final rankings. You may of course also ask the instructor to estimate your grade, for instance during office hours.

**Discussion board:** We will use an online Discussion board for the course, available on Canvas. If you have general questions about the course material, you are strongly encouraged to ask them on the discussion board, where they can be answered by the instructors, the TAs, the head Lab TA or other students in the class and answers can benefit everyone. Questions concerning specific homework and computer lab assignments should be directly sent to your TAs, head lab TA, or your instructor. Anything unrelated to the course materials must not be posted on our course discussion board, or it will be removed.

**Gradescope:** Exams will be submitted, graded, and returned through Gradescope, which is accessible through Canvas. You will get an email when they are ready. Exam regrade requests must be submitted through Gradescope within that exam's regrade request window. *Regrade requests are for when you believe the rubric has been marked incorrectly. They are not for arguing with the rubric.*

**Lab Regrades:** Regrade requests on computer lab assignments should be sent by email to the head lab TA. All regrade requests must be submitted within 3 days of when the graded work was returned. Pleaseunderstand that while we will correct errors in the grading, we will not modify the grading rubric or negotiate over partial credit after graded papers are returned to students.

**Office Hours:** The instructor and TAs will hold regular office hours. See schedule. You may attend the office hours of any of the TAs, not just the TA who runs your discussion section. The head lab TA will hold some office hours to help students with computer lab assignments. Supplemental Instruction will also hold sessions.

**Discussion Sections:** Discussion sections, run by your TA, will meet every Thursday and will be held on Zoom, accessible from Canvas. These discussions are intended to help students with problem-solving skills, and give them an opportunity to ask any questions you might have about the materials. Attending discussion sections, while not strictly required as part of the course grade, is strongly encouraged.

**Supplemental Instruction:** Supplemental Instruction sessions, run by the Teaching and Learning Commons, will be held over Zoom every Wednesday 3:00-4:20pm by Pablo Corcoran; see schedule. Instructions for logging into these sessions will be provided in Canvas. Attending supplemental instruction sessions is not required, but you may find these sessions to be useful for developing a deeper understanding of the material.

**Academic Dishonesty:** Academic dishonesty is considered a serious offense at UCSD. Students caught cheating will face an administrative sanction which may include suspension or expulsion from the university. It is in your best interest to maintain your academic integrity.