Introductory Probability and Statistics

Spring 2019 Lecture A (Swanson)

**Course:** Math 11 (Course Catalog)

**Title:** Calculus-Based Introductory Probability and Statistics

**Credit Hours:** 5

**Prerequisite:** AP Calculus BC score of 3, 4, or 5, or Math 10B or Math 20B.

**Catalog Description:** Events and probabilities, conditional probability, Bayesâ€™ formula. Discrete and continuous random variables: mean, variance; binomial, Poisson distributions, normal, uniform, exponential distributions, central limit theorem. Sample statistics, confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, regression. Applications. Introduction to software for probabilistic and statistical analysis. Emphasis on connections between probability and statistics, numerical results of real data, and techniques of data analysis.

**Course Content:** Probability theory is the mathematical study of randomness. Statistics is the science of obtaining information from data. Because data are frequently modeled as arising from a random process, probability is central to the mathematical theory of statistics. This course will provide an introduction to both probability and statistics, focusing on applications. We will cover most of chapters 1-25 of the textbook. Because Math 11 students have seen calculus, we will also discuss some material on continuous probability that is not in the textbook. The calendar lists what topics will be covered each day.

**Time Commitment:** Math 11 is a lot of work. You have weekly labs, weekly homework, three exams, a demanding pace, and lots of reading. **Math 11 is a 5-unit course**. You should expect to spend a total of **15 hours per week** on the course, or three hours per week more than you would spend on a standard 4-unit course. You have been warned.

**Textbook:** The required textbook is *Stats: Data and Models* by De Veaux, Velleman, and Bock. You must have the 4th edition of the textbook and it must include an access code for MyStatLab. You can either (1) purchase the textbook from the UCSD Bookstore, which comes bundled with a MyStatLab access code, or (2) purchase electronic access for one quarter only from the MyStatLab website. When you first log in to MyStatLab through TritonEd, you will be prompted to enter an access code or purchase electronic access. If you choose option (2), you will have access to the textbook until the end of the quarter, but not after. The international edition of the textbook has different numbers in a few of the problems and is not suitable for this course.

We will also read a handout on "Continuous Random Variables" that is posted to the TritonEd "Content" area.

**Course Readings:** Reading the sections in the textbook that correspond to what we are discussing in class is a very important part of learning the subject. Lecture time is very limited and not every subject can be fully covered in the time allotted for lecture. Consequently, it is in your own interests to read the related chapters in the textbook. See the calendar and homework pages for specifics.

**Lecture Notes:** To encourage active participation on Piazza, there will be signups for members of the class to post their lecture notes. Each person may sign up at most once, and each lecture may have at most one student posting notes. Students will have 1% added to their raw final weighted score at the end of the quarter for posting lecture notes. See Piazza for details.

**Homework:** Homework is a very important part of the course and in order to fully master the topics it is essential that you work carefully on every assignment and try your best to complete every problem. We will have two different kinds of homework assignments in this class: online homework (which will be graded) and "paper-and-pen" homework (which will not be graded).

- You may miss up to 10% of the overall online homework points without penalty to your grade. Consequently, I will not change your grade on individual questions for any reason.
- You can get help with the homework in discussion sections, from the course Piazza site, in TA office hours, in my office hours, or in the Calculus Tutoring Lab.
- You are encouraged to help each other on homework, though you must each give an
*honest effort*, and it is a serious breach of academic integrity to simply copy someone else's answers.

**Computer Lab Assignments:** In addition to the weekly homework assignments, there will be eight computer lab assignments due on Fridays. These assignments must be submitted by 9:00 PM on the due date. You will submit your assignments online using TritonEd.

Math 11 Computer Lab Assignments Webpage: http://www.math.ucsd.edu/~math11/S19.html

**Late Computer Lab Assignments:** The first computer lab assignment may be submitted up to one week late for a 1-point penalty. (This is to accommodate those students who enroll late.) Other computer lab assignments will be accepted up to one hour late for a 3-point penalty (to allow for computer glitches at the time of the deadline), but labs completed more than one hour after the deadline will not be accepted.

**Graphing Calculators:** Although a graphing calculator is not required for the course, it is likely to be helpful. Having a graphing calculator avoids the need to use tables for statistical inference. Graphing calculators will be permitted on exams.

**Exams:** There will be two midterm exams and a final exam. Check the Course Calendar for the dates of the exams. You will be permitted to use a calculator during the exams. You will not be permitted to use notes or your book, but you will be provided with a list of formulas. Please bring your student ID to the exams.

**Final Exam:**

- It is your responsibility to ensure that you do not have a schedule conflict involving the final examination.
*You should not enroll in this class if you cannot sit for the final examination at its scheduled time.* - You must pass the final exam ( >59% ) in order to pass the class. (The actual required percentage may be lowered, depending on overall class performance.)

**Make-up Exams:** Make-up exams will not be given, nor will we offer exams at an alternate time. If you miss a midterm exam, then we will substitute your final exam score for the missed exam. (See "Method 2" under "Grading" below.)

**Grading:** There are two methods to determine your course grade:

**Method 1:**15% Homework, 20% Labs, 15% Midterm 1, 15% Midterm 2, 35% Final Exam**Method 2:**15% Homework, 20% Labs, 15% Best Midterm Exam, 50% Final Exam

A+ |
A |
A- |
B+ |
B |
B- |
C+ |
C |
C- |
D |
F |

[99,100] |
[93,99) |
[90,93) |
[87,90) |
[83,87) |
[80,83) |
[77,80) |
[73,77) |
[70,73) |
[60,70) |
[0,60) |

While I may adjust the scale to be more lenient, I guarantee that the grade corresponding to a given percentage will not be lower than specified by the above scale.

**Piazza:** A class discussion board has been set up on Piazza. You will be automatically signed up unless you join the course late. You should almost always *post on Piazza rather than emailing me or the TA's directly*. You will likely get a faster, higher quality response this way, and it's more efficient for everyone.

**GradeScope:** Exams will be graded and returned through GradeScope. You will get an email when they are ready. Exam regrade requests must be submitted through GradeScope within that exam's regrade request window. *Regrade requests are for when you believe the rubric has been marked incorrectly. They are not for arguing with the rubric.*

**Lab Regrades:** If you wish to request that a computer lab be regraded, you must notify the head lab TA within one week of the time when your lab is graded. *Regrade requests are for when you believe there is a clear error in grading. They are not for negotiating over partial credit.*

**Filing for a Incomplete:** Sometimes it is not possible to complete all of the work in the course due to circumstances beyond your control. (Being unable to take the final exam because of accident or sickness, for example.) In such a case, it may be possible to file for an Incomplete grade. If an Incomplete is granted, you will be given the opportunity to complete the work during the next quarter. (All work must be completed before the end of Week 10 the following academic quarter.) In order to be eligible for an Incomplete, you must meet the following criteria:

- Your incomplete work must be due to circumstances beyond your control. (Sickness, accident, etc.)
- You must be able to verify the circumstances with official documentation.
- Your course work must be of "non-failing quality" (from the Academic Senate Regulations).

**Office Hours:** The instructor and TAs will hold regular office hours. See schedule. You may attend the office hours of any of the TAs, not just the TA who runs your discussion section. The head lab TA will hold some office hours in the computer lab to help students with computer lab assignments.

**Academic Dishonesty:** Academic dishonesty is considered a serious offense at UCSD. Students caught cheating will face an administrative sanction which may include suspension or expulsion from the university. It is in your best interest to maintain your academic integrity.